Competition Logistics
Since 2022, the BMR has assumed ownership of the Economist of the Year (EoY) competition, overseeing its governance, management, and overall administration as follows:
- The management of the competition: This entails sending out monthly requests to participating economists to submit their updated economic forecasts and outlooks.
- Collating and analysing the monthly forecasts: After receiving the monthly submissions, the economists’ forecasts are collated and analysed to determine consensus forecasts across all ten economic variables being monitored.
- Adjudication of the competition: An independent adjudication panel consolidates and evaluates the monthly economic forecasts and ultimately identifies the winner whose annual average predictions most accurately align with the official economic data published by the relevant agencies.
- Celebrating the competition and appointing a winner: Following the adjudication process, an EoY event is organised during which the annual winner of the competition is announced. The top three finalists, including the winner, are recognised during the event. The winner receives the reward.
- Preparing monthly competition and winner announcement press releases: Following the collation and analysis of the economists’ submitted forecasts by the independent adjudication panel, monthly press releases are distributed to the media highlighting key economic forecast trends and consensus outcomes. A separate press release is also issued to announce and recognise the annual competition winner.
Become a participant
Interested in learning more about the Economist of the Year competition? Whether you are considering participating, would like further information on the evaluation criteria, or have questions about the forecasting process, we are here to assist. Contact us for more information.
Competition Rules
- The competition is open to individuals holding appropriate qualifications in economics or a related field, and who are professionally engaged in economics, including economists, economic analysts, academics, researchers and related practitioners.
- Entries are individual-based, and multiple participants from the same organisation are permitted.
- No entry fee is required.
- Participants are responsible for submitting their own entries and monthly forecasts.
- Forecast submissions are due on the first Friday of each month. If no updated forecast is submitted, the previous month’s forecast will remain valid.
- Monthly forecast results will be shared with participants via Excel spreadsheet.
- Failure to submit forecasts may result in disqualification.
- By entering, participants consent to the use of their forecasts for media and research purposes.
- The adjudication panel’s decisions are final, and the annual winner will be announced in June of the following year.
Structure of the competition
Since its inception, the competition structure has remained largely unchanged. Participants submit monthly forecasts for selected economic variables, beginning with an independent forecast at the start of the year without any benchmark guidance.
Each month, participants receive a spreadsheet containing all submitted forecasts from the previous month, including the consensus forecast, calculated as the average of all submissions. Participants then update their forecasts accordingly.
The competition winner is determined using a long-standing adjudication formula based on weighted squared forecast errors. Greater weighting is assigned to forecasts made earlier in the year, rewarding economists who can accurately predict economic outcomes under higher levels of uncertainty.
For each variable and each participant, a weighted squared error is calculated as follows:
where Fi is month i’s forecast, A is the actual value, and Mi are weightings for each month (first month = 11, second month =10,…, last month = 1).
The decreasing weighting system places greater emphasis on forecasts made earlier in the year, when economic uncertainty is higher, thereby rewarding economists who can predict outcomes accurately well in advance.
For each economic variable, participants are ranked according to forecast accuracy, with rankings combined across all variables. The participant with the best overall ranking is named the Economist of the Year.
Forecast accuracy is measured against official economic data, primarily sourced from the South African Reserve Bank’s Quarterly Bulletin.
2026 Programme Timeline
Competition registrations open
Registration opens to economists, analysts and forecasting professionals.
Forecasting cycle begins
Participants submit their first monthly economic forecasts.
Official competition launch
Launch video and introduction to the 2026 Economist of the Year Competition.
Economic review and reflection
Videocast reflecting on key economic developments and forecasting trends during 2026.
Forecasting cycle concludes
Final monthly forecasts submitted for the 2026 competition.
Adjudication Process End
2025 competition adjudication process.
Adjudication Process
Forecasts are evaluated against actual economic outcomes using the official competition methodology.
2026 Economist of the Year Awards ceremony
Announcement and celebration of the 2026 Economist of the Year finalists and winner.