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What is the Economist of the Year (EoY) competition?
The Economist of the Year competition is an annual forecasting competition managed by the BMR, where economists and economic analysts submit monthly forecasts for selected economic variables. The participant with the most accurate overall forecasts is named the Economist of the Year.
Who manages the Economist of the Year competition?
Since 2022, the BMR has been responsible for the governance, management, and administration of the competition.
Who can participate in the competition?
The competition is open to individuals holding appropriate qualifications in economics or a related field, and who are professionally engaged in economics, including economists, economic analysts, academics, researchers and related practitioners.
Can multiple participants from the same organisation enter?
Yes. Multiple participants from the same organisation are allowed to participate.
Is there an entry fee to participate?
No. Participation in the competition is free of charge.
How often do participants need to submit forecasts?
Participants are required to submit updated forecasts monthly. Forecasts are due on the first Friday of each month.
What happens if a participant does not submit an updated forecast?
If no updated forecast is submitted, the participant’s previous month’s forecast will remain valid. Continued failure to submit forecasts may result in disqualification.
How are forecast results shared with participants?
Monthly forecast results are shared with participants through an Excel spreadsheet containing all submitted forecasts and the consensus forecast.
How is the competition winner determined?
The winner is determined using a weighted squared forecast error formula that evaluates the accuracy of participants’ forecasts across all economic variables.
Why are earlier forecasts weighted more heavily?
Earlier forecasts receive greater weighting because they are made under higher levels of economic uncertainty, rewarding economists who can accurately predict outcomes well in advance.
What sources are used to measure forecast accuracy?
Forecast accuracy is measured against official economic data, primarily sourced from the South African Reserve Bank’s Quarterly Bulletin.
Who adjudicates the competition?
An independent adjudication panel consolidates and evaluates the monthly forecasts and identifies the annual winner.
When is the annual winner announced?
The annual winner is announced in June of the following year during the Economist of the Year event.
What recognition do winners receive?
The top three finalists are recognised during the annual event, and the overall winner receives the competition reward.
How can someone learn more or become a participant?
Interested individuals can contact the organisers for more information about participation, evaluation criteria, or the forecasting process.